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The trend in lot prices over the last ten years has generally been upward. Appreciation rates were astounding in the mid-1990's, with some areas showing annual gains exceeding 30%. For 2000 through 2002 we see a slowing of appreciation and sometimes apparent downward trends in some areas. However, the reader is cautioned on two factors. One, as an area of develops and lots are sold, often the less desirable land sells last, so more recent sales often reflect less appealing tracts, and therefore less valuable properties than their previously sold counter-parts. Second, declines in average price are often due to an increase in average tract size. When comparing the following statistics, be sure to view the average size in conjunction with the average price. As tract size increases, price per acre generally declines.
In terms of average per acre price, after 29% and 21% appreciation rates in 1998 and 1999, our benchmark study area, the Weimer Road location, stabilized in 2000 at about $51,000 per acre, increased only slightly to $52,557 in 2001, and declined in 2002 with an average price of $49,859 per acre. The most expensive residential lots continue to be found in El Salto and Canon, with current prices in the $66,000 to $67,000 per acre range. Las Colonias and Des Montes provide the third highest range of prices hovering around $50,000 per acre.
As part of our day to day business, we investigate appreciation with methods other than statistical analysis that can be skewed as described. One of the best ways to estimate appreciation is to pair the sale and later resale of the same parcel. Following are the results of appreciation estimates prepared in this fashion for some areas where we have recently worked. The figures indicate appreciation over 5 to 10 year holding periods.
Upper Weimer Road 7.5% per year
El Salto 10% per year
Des Montes 8% per year
Arroyo Hondo 6% per year
Llano Quemado 4% per year
Here are some average homesite prices for 2002 from some of the "upscale" neighborhoods around the valley.
Average price of residential building lot in an upscale neighborhood for 2002:
Canon $146,000
Des Montes $174,000
El Salto $121,000
Weimer Road $ 85,500
Average $131,625
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